Imagine buying an apartment in a settled neighbourhood because supply is scarce. The streets are familiar, the skyline barely changes and only a handful of new homes normally appear. Then one morning the future pipeline is no longer a handful. It is hundreds—or more than a thousand.
That is the nightmare scenario for an investor whose property must soon compete with an entire new precinct. The leafy view may become a view of cranes. Quiet streets may face years of trucks and roadworks. Tenants may suddenly have dozens of shiny new alternatives.
We searched national building-approval records for places that lived relatively steady lives and then changed abruptly during July 2025 to June 2026. These are six of Australia's clearest local supply shocks—and the real projects we could trace behind them.
1 · Five Dock–Abbotsford, NSW Exact project found
The apartment investor's nightmare: nearly seventeen years of approvals in one month
Five Dock had been moving at a comfortable pace. A typical earlier year produced roughly 69 approved dwellings across the wider statistical area. Then September 2025 arrived—and everything changed.
Almost the entire shock was +1,185 new apartments. For an owner of a conventional local apartment, this is the number that can keep you awake at night. A future buyer or tenant may soon be choosing between your older property and hundreds of brand-new alternatives.
Kings Bay Village · Parramatta and Queens Roads, Five Dock
Five buildings with 1,185 homes, including about 218 affordable homes for essential workers; 14,700m² of retail and commercial space; a major supermarket; specialty shops; indoor recreation and public parkland. Work began in September 2025. Stage 1 is targeted for 2028 and the complete precinct for 2030, near the future Five Dock Metro station.
⚠What could hurt
Years of cranes, trucks and construction noise; more pressure on roads and services; and intense rental and resale competition for ordinary apartments when stages complete.
↑Who might win
A nearby house does not directly compete with +1,185 new apartments. If the Metro, supermarket, shops and park make Five Dock more desirable—and amenity outweighs congestion—house owners may benefit from the investment around them.
2 · Mermaid Waters, QLD The mystery billion-dollar approval
A quiet canal suburb—and then +973 new apartments appeared in the records
Mermaid Waters normally recorded only a few approvals each month. In November 2025, the number exploded to +983 new dwellings, including +973 new apartments with a recorded building value of exactly A$1.2 billion.
The obvious public candidate is the proposed reworking of The Lanes: an A$1 billion-plus, three-tower precinct with 700 apartments, retail, commercial space, wellness uses and a lakeside amphitheatre. But its count and public assessment status do not match the ABS record. We will not force the evidence to fit.
A genuine approval shock; exact building still unconfirmed
The official record shows an extraordinary large-apartment event. Until a matching permit or project is identified, investors should treat the exact construction story as unresolved—not quietly assume that all +973 new apartments are about to break ground.
3 · South Brisbane, QLD A wave, not one tower
The skyline did not change once. It changed again and again.
South Brisbane's shock is more relentless than sudden: +1,628 new dwellings approved across several bursts. First +324 new apartments, then +268, then +204, then +147—and finally another +568. Instead of one crane, residents may be facing overlapping construction sites.
Scape · 41 Tribune Street, South Brisbane
A reported 17-storey student building with 527 beds and ground-floor retail, approved in March 2026. It sits within a much larger development pipeline around Tribune, Merivale, Cordelia and Boundary Streets; it does not explain the whole SA2 total by itself.
⚠The pressure
More new towers can mean competing landlord incentives, crowded construction access, lost views and a suburb that feels like a worksite for years.
↑The opportunity
Students and new residents support cafes, retail and transit. Distinctive apartments with better layouts, views or lower body-corporate costs may separate themselves from generic new stock.
4 · Turner, ACT Two major projects identified
Turner's quiet edge-of-city position is becoming an institutional rental corridor
October 2025 delivered +473 new approvals, including +463 new apartments. The bigger story is not merely quantity: some of Turner's new competition will be professionally managed build-to-rent stock rather than individually owned investment apartments.
Cedar Pacific Turner Residences + Botanical
Cedar Pacific plans 315 build-to-rent apartments near the Ipima Street light-rail stop, with 15% offered as affordable rentals. Nearby, Botanical's first stage is reported as 249 apartments in a nine-storey Northbourne Avenue building. Approval timing means these figures cannot simply be added to the October total, but they reveal the scale and type of change.
5 · Braddon, ACT Exact project found
Braddon's single-month shock has a name: Gateway
For years, approvals moved gently. Then February 2026 added +558 new apartments—a near-perfect match to the originally published residential count for one enormous project at Canberra's northern gateway.
Gateway · 220 Northbourne Avenue, Braddon
Geocon's four-building urban village wraps around a landscaped communal courtyard, with commercial tenancies, a pool, gym, sauna, business lounge and rooftop gardens. Sales material has described 558 residences; current developer material says 510, indicating design evolution. Basement construction is under way and completion is promoted for 2028.
⚠The nightmare for generic units
Hundreds of apartments with new amenities arrive together. Older, ordinary one-bedroom stock may need to compete on price, rent or lower ongoing costs.
↑The neighbourhood bet
Ground-floor businesses, landscaped space and more residents can strengthen Braddon's street life. Well-located houses or genuinely scarce apartments may benefit without being direct substitutes.
6 · Cashmere, QLD The house-building outlier
No giant tower. Instead, an entire new suburban population is arriving stage by stage.
The Cashmere SA2—including Warner and Joyner—approved +573 new dwellings: +479 new houses and +94 new townhouses. The change is slower than Five Dock but potentially more permanent. Every quarter adds more streets, more roofs and more families; April 2026 alone delivered +144 new approvals.
Regent Quarter · Joyner
An A$158 million community with 328 residential lots ranging from 352m² to 681m², plus a proposed commercial hub and 120-place childcare centre. Its first three stages were registered by mid-2025, with later stages expected to follow. It illustrates the estate-led growth occurring across the wider SA2.
⚠What existing residents may feel
More cars, fuller schools, road pressure, dust and the gradual loss of a semi-rural atmosphere. Infrastructure can arrive later than the rooftops.
↑What established homes may offer
New estates bring shops, childcare and services. Older properties with larger lots, mature landscaping and completed amenity may look increasingly scarce beside smaller new blocks.
What the six approval shocks add up to
Only after seeing each neighbourhood does the national pattern become clear: this is overwhelmingly a new-apartment story, with Cashmere the house-building exception.
All six shocks at a glance
| Neighbourhood | New approvals | Normal earlier year* | Shock size | What is arriving | The day it changed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five Dock–Abbotsford, NSW | +1,263 | 69 | 18.3× | +1,211 new apartments | +1,186, Sep 2025 |
| Mermaid Waters, QLD | +1,094 | 64 | 17.1× | +1,031 new apartments | +983, Nov 2025 |
| South Brisbane, QLD | +1,628 | 256 | 6.4× | +1,627 new apartments | +569, Jun 2026 |
| Turner, ACT | +480 | 66 | 7.3× | +463 new apartments | +473, Oct 2025 |
| Braddon, ACT | +680 | 27 | 25.0× | +664 new apartments | +558, Feb 2026 |
| Cashmere, QLD | +573 | 136 | 4.2× | +479 new houses, +94 townhouses | +144, Apr 2026 |
*A conservative typical earlier 12-month total, used to show scale rather than predict construction.
The crane outside your window can be both threat and opportunity
If you own the same type of apartment as the hundreds being built next door, the risk is obvious: more choice for tenants and buyers, newer kitchens, larger incentives and a harder resale conversation. If you own a scarce house nearby, the equation may reverse. You could gain the Metro, supermarket, park, cafes and public investment without competing directly with a new tower. The outcome depends on whether new amenity outweighs congestion—and whether your property is replaceable.
Three questions matter more than the headline
When will the homes actually arrive?
Permission to build is only the beginning. Finance, presales, builders and construction costs decide whether the project starts, stalls or changes. Watch cranes and commencement dates, not only approvals.
Does the new project truly compete with your property?
A thousand apartments are not a thousand competing houses. Student rooms, build-to-rent homes, affordable apartments and luxury owner-occupier towers also serve different people. The greatest danger is hundreds of near-identical homes finishing at the same time as yours.
What does the neighbourhood receive in return?
Count more than dwellings. Look for transport, parks, supermarkets, schools, childcare and street improvements. Then weigh them against traffic, shadows, construction disruption and pressure on local services.
Method and sources
Heatmaps analysed private-sector new-dwelling approvals from the ABS at SA2 level for July 2025–June 2026, compared them with earlier annual activity, then reviewed planning and project records for plausible matches. Values are approved building work, not sales or end values.
- ABS Building Approvals.
- NSW Planning Portal: Kings Bay Village; project details.
- Proposed Lanes masterplan—context only, not asserted as the ABS project.
- Brisbane Development.i.
- Cedar Pacific; Botanical.
- Gateway, Braddon.
- Regent Quarter, Joyner.
General information, not financial advice. Project details and status can change; check current planning records and independent advice.
Explore the approvals heatmap